Constructive Pessimism

Last three weeks has been for me, least to say ‘different’. This is the longest ever I have lived away from my family. However, I refer to this period as ‘different’ for three things I manage to break, out of the new circumstances I have immersed myself into:

• I broke the cultural monotony I have had in the last 12 years through the first interactions with my new colleagues.
• I broke the boundaries of the job functions that I was exposed to for most part of my career and redrew my charted territory.
•  I was forced to break the personal dependencies I had the luxury of and discover a path of self-reliance to my needs.

I have been reading about people ‘moving out of their comfort zone’ and the difference that it made it to their lives. The most glaring of them was that of an article on Steve Jobs, in Gulf News today. (Oh yes, Gulf News served to me by the hotel and not Times of India which I have been tied to for the last 12 years.)

I landed in Dubai early November yearning a change in my less than eventful career. Three weeks hence, as I gather my thoughts and skim through the events, I think the best phrase I could use to summarize my approach is “Constructive Pessimism”. I define the phrase as, creative, cautious and simultaneous micro decisions evaluated on the incremental probabilities of failure at every successive step and which on integration into a quantifiable event; deliver a cumulative probability of success at the macro level. There are three aspects to this definition, on the premise that the thought process was the result of a reluctant, yet necessary move out of my comfort zone:

1. Creative, Cautious and Simultaneous micro decisions – The first step was to define the objective, break it into events and then define micro decisions. The micros had to be creative, to ensure that the action is not monotonous from that within the comfort zone; cautious since the threading were into unknown territories and simultaneous for the need to spread the risk.
2.  Assigning incremental probabilities of failure at each successive step – Every decision node requires an incremental commitment to the previous selection and it was only prudent to assign a higher probability of failure to each successive step. This would ensure that probabilities are evaluated based on the concurrent events when a credible base line is not available as a benchmark and hence strengthens the framework of the model being built to evaluate the holistic situation.
3. Integration of the quantifiable event delivering a cumulative probability of success – Since the series of decision nodes has endured the lower probabilities of success assigned to them and has evolved as a successful chain of events; the integrated macro would carry an accumulated probability of success.

The process of “Constructive Pessimism”, if could be proven mathematically, I look forward to a partner who could work on this thought with me. 

Urban Migration in India - A Business Opportunity

Urban migration in India, it's a story of dreams and a saga of the land of opportunities. It's the story of three youngsters Mathew, Shalini and Tikaram.

Mathew grew up in Trichur, a small town in central Kerala. Like any teenager of his age, from a family of lower middle class government servant parents, Mathew had two career options when he cleared his standard 10th exams; a doctor or a engineer. The wise man in the town made his life simple; the former will get him his first salary when is 29 and the later will get his first salary at 21. He chose engineering. Cut to 6 years later, he lands up in Bangalore the Silicon Valley of India. Cut to 2 years further, Mathew is in a de-addiction enter trying to get out of his alcoholism.

Shalini grew up in Aurangabad, a small town in Bihar. Her parents worked as domestic helps at an affluent family. She was lucky among her friends to get the affection her "Malkin" who supported her education and she completed a vocational course to be a beautician. On completion of the course, she packed her bags with the hopes of her family to the city of dreams, Mumbai. Cut to 4 years later, Shalini is one of the "reputed" escorts in suburban Mumbai. Cut to 2 years further, Shalini is jailed for immoral traffic and drug peddling.

Tikaram grew up in Perbing, a village in Sikkim. He was not as lucky as Mathew or Shalini with his childhood education. The day he had a mustache, the elder of the village entrusted him to Bolaram, who works as a security in Gurgaon. Cut to 4 years later, Tikaram works as a security in a residential complex in Gurgaon. He shares a room with 3 other men in the basement of the apartment. The room stinks of beedi and cockroaches tickle Tikaram in his sleep. He frequents a brothel for his needs and cooks his dinner. Cut to 2 years further, the village elder entrusts Tikaram with Ram Bahadur, who just got his mustache.

These three youngsters represent the unlucky many that took bold steps to their dreams, but lost out in between. The story of shining India gave us a good amount of people who made their dreams and I acknowledge that. The stories of Mathew, Shalini and Tikaram are very different when we read it. But all the three represents one common issue; that of Urban Migration for which India needs to find a sustainable solution. That's where my thought of a business proposition comes in.

India has one of the best rural administration networks in the world (the adjective best applies only to the network). The network is one that could be easily leveraged. The idea is to set up a venture which structures Urban Migration, by merging the best of executive search and organized migration. The idea anchors on a 3 point agenda:

1. Provide a credible database, filtered at source for the quality and efficiency of the potential candidate to e prospective employers.

2. Provide a platform for registering for employment at the district head quarters level, proving their credibility and sourcing professional coaching for the possible employment avenues, setting expectations and identifying pitfalls.

3. Provide a searchable record base for all employment details and track their future progress or subsequent movement.

One of the biggest issues to be tackled (apart from the typical red tape issues) is the bridging the skill gap for the rural markets; especially the soft skills. The revenue model would be built similar to the typical career and placement industry. Like minded people could reach out @ jubilant@gmail.com.